Tensions are rising between Russia and Ukraine. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict can affect Norway in several ways.
For several years, there was great tension between Ukraine and Russia. There were also conflicts within Ukraine.
President Vladimir Putin Recognized separatist areas Ukraine, Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states. In addition, he ordered what he calls “Peacekeeping forces” in the region.
As a result, the European Union warns against imposing severe sanctions on Russia.
There is a great deal of uncertainty about what Putin chooses next. Uncertainty could spread and affect Norway and the rest of Europe.
Tor Bokvol believes that how the conflict between Ukraine and Russia affects Norway depends on how the situation develops. He is a senior researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment.
– So far there is no major war. He adds that the bigger the war, the worse the relationship between Russia and the West.
Bokful says Russia has an interest in Norway, but not in the same way as Ukraine.
– When it comes to the High North, I think that Russia wants to ensure stable development and they want to avoid conflict. In general, relations between Russia and the Nordic countries are as good as they are.
– There is no immediate danger to Norway as there is now, he says.
Norway does not have a major role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, other than the role we play by being a member of NATO.
At the same time, Norway supported EU sanctions against Russia.
I don’t believe in a big war in Europe, but it could be a big war in Ukraine. The danger is there. But I hope Putin is aware of the dire consequences of the war, also for his country, says Bukefol.
Oil and energy are more expensive
When there are conflicts in the world such as between Russia and Ukraine, it can lead to economic uncertainty and instability.
Oil and energy prices may rise with increased demand and the stock market may decline. The uncertainty had consequences for The Moscow Stock Exchange plunged on Monday.
In a state of turmoil, people want to hoard a little. Then you want to make sure you have enough power, and then the price goes up because you’re not sure about the supply in the future. What we sell will then be at a higher price, says the professor at the Norwegian School of Management, Trond Duskland.
Oil prices are already soaring, and Duskland believes that electricity prices in Europe may rise due to reduced access to gas from Russia.
At the same time, Germany decided to stop the approval of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. This may lead to higher gas prices in Europe.
Norway is fortunate in that we are exporters of oil, gas and electricity, says Duskland.
Conflict can also affect home interest rates.
When it comes to interest rates, they are raised when the economy is in good shape, but when the economy is uncertain, one is more reluctant to raise interest rates. Therefore, the announced rate increase may be delayed, says Døskeland
He says Norway does not depend to much on Russia for goods and services.
Cooperation will continue
During a press conference on Tuesday, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said Norway would continue to cooperate with Russia.
Norway has lived as a neighbor with the Soviet Union and Russia for many decades, and has managed to maintain that relationship in a practical way. We want to continue that, says the Prime Minister.
He says that through many conflicts, Norway and Russia have managed to cooperate. The two countries cooperate in fishing, search and rescue and a number of neighborhood issues.
– For Norway, it is important to stand with European countries and abide by the principles that states have rights, have the right to security and the right to make their own decisions.
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