Ukraine, Russia | A massive Russian attack provokes reactions: – They have learned

Now there is a Russian attack on the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka.

– This is a very big attack, says Ukrainian writer for Netavysyn and leader of the Norwegian-Ukrainian Society of Friends, Jørn Sund Henriksen, in the Friday issue of Ukrainapodden.

Listen to the entire episode here, or where you listen to the podcast:

According to Vitaly Barabash, head of the city administration, Avdiivka is under constant bombardment.

– Battles rage for the fourth day in a row. They are fierce and non-stop. He said in a televised speech on Friday: They (Russia) are shooting at us with everything they have.

– Tonight until today has been very intense. The city witnessed several air strikes. Barabash added that the attacks occur day and night, but Ukrainian forces still control the area.

Recently, Russia transferred large amounts of troops and equipment to the outskirts of the city. The city is located in the extreme south-east of the front line, approximately halfway between Zaporizhia in the south and Bakhmut in the east:

The city has been on the front line since the massive invasion in February 2022, but has remained under Ukrainian control throughout, despite ongoing Russian attacks. At the same time, the Russians were not far from the city, and Since July 2022 They have tried to encircle it, so far to no avail.

The end of the meat grinder?

Russia had to endure a lot of criticism for its strategy during the invasion of Bakhmut, about 50 kilometers north of Avdiivka. The ground attacks here have been referred to several times as a meat grinder or bloodbath, with soldiers sent on what appear to be suicide missions.

Now the Russian military has learned about it, according to the American research center ISW.

– The ongoing Russian offensive near Avdijivka appears to demonstrate the Russians’ ability to learn and apply tactical lessons on the battlefield, ISW wrote in an update on the war.

Among other things, they point to a pro-Russian military blogger, who reported that Russians were no longer “thrown into a meat grinder.”

The main difference from previous failed attacks in the area must have been that the Russians used intense artillery fire to a greater extent at the start of the attack, before later entering with a mixture of first tanks, then infantry columns. This is evident, among other things, from geographical records, writes ISW.

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A source who claims to be fighting in the region said that Russia is using electronic warfare in the region and showing good cooperation between the command headquarters, scouts, soldiers and artillery groups.

Aerial reconnaissance, for example using drones, was a central and important learning point for the Russians, according to the report.

– These changes and tactical successes probably will not translate into a larger operation and strategic victories for the Russian forces and ISW countries.

They point out that Russia has not yet been able to encircle Avdiivka. The city is fortified and Russia will have problems capturing it, ISW writes.

– When Russia started moving its forces towards the front here, Ukraine found out what was happening, says Sund Henriksen in Ukrainapodden on Friday.

– Prepare sites and plant minefields. Although the Russian force is much larger than the Ukrainian force, the Russians were unable to control more than a few hundred meters south and north of the city. He adds that they suffered heavy losses.

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– Even if they fought a more advanced war than they did in Bakhmut, for example, this would be a complete disaster. Some accounts indicate that these are the largest losses they have suffered in a single battle since the war began, says Sund Henriksen.

Analyst Andrew Perpetua has recorded that the Russians lost more than 80 armored vehicles this week. The Ukrainian military claims that the Russians have lost nearly 3,000 soldiers over the past three days.

Motivation to attack

– Russia may be trying to attack Avdijievka to prevent Ukraine from moving its forces to other parts of the front. However, Ukraine said it was aware of the matter and was unlikely to send more soldiers to that axis, ISW wrote.

Meanwhile, pro-Ukrainian military bloggers claim that the Russians are also committing ancient sins, by creating a tank that supposedly fired on their troops. Who fled a Ukrainian cluster bomb attack. Recently, several videos have appeared on social media showing the use of cluster bombs on the front lines in Ukraine.

The situation appears to be very difficult for the Ukrainian forces defending Avdiivka, but Ukrainian messages coming from the area indicate that morale remains high at the moment:

– The prevailing mood among the boys here is that they will not penetrate here, one of them writes Pro-Ukrainian military blogger.