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It has been more than 638 days since Putin’s Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Seven years before the war started again when Russian forces occupied Ukrainian lands.
The large-scale invasion led to widespread mobilization among Western countries. A series of sanctions were imposed on Russia, and Ukraine received significant support.
However, a significant military buildup among NATO countries and other countries supporting Ukraine has been delayed – although significant steps have been taken.
On the battlefield in Ukraine, the situation is now considered somewhat of a stalemate, although over time Ukrainian forces have pushed back against Russian forces.
It is difficult to envision any immediate solution to the conflict. But when the war is over, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) predicts that the Russian start will move towards a new military rearmament.
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– The biggest threat to NATO countries
The DGAP published a report in November, examining how to prevent another major war.
Russia, with its imperial ambitions, poses the biggest and most pressing threat to NATO countries, write Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz in the report Preventing the Next War.
The question is no longer whether NATO and Germany should be able to engage in battle against another country, but rather when, the report says.
Furthermore, the report notes that it will take six to ten years for Russia to build an army strong enough to attack a NATO country after the war in Ukraine ends.
– I firmly believe that we should plan for a strong and authoritarian Russia in conflict with NATO within five to ten years.
This is what Tom Roseth, chief instructor of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, says. He says there is uncertainty about what will happen if Russia loses the war against Ukraine.
If Russia gains a lot of territory, Moscow will be encouraged to pursue more regional ambitions. Roseth says they will also admit, as they have done, that they are in a long-term conflict with NATO.
But if Russia loses, it is not certain that you will get the same strong militarism in a Russia with a lost reputation and self-confidence. Moreover, a loss could lead to instability in the country and a very stressful situation with a Russia that is weaker, but will try to build itself up.
– Europe and Norway must wake up
German experts call for Russia not to be given the opportunity to exploit a potential window of opportunity – where it can outperform NATO in rearming its defenses.
– NATO must complete its repositioning process at least a year before Russia reaches war capacity. This would give the Kremlin the opportunity to realize in time that the window for a successful Russian attack on NATO has not yet opened, they wrote.
Moreover, they wrote, Germany and NATO can only influence their ability to deter and defend, and that they cannot influence whether Russia wants to wage another war.
The time Russia spends building up its military strength again determines the speed at which NATO must do the same. NATO must be able to withstand a Russian attack within six years. As longer as the timeline appears today, the risk of war is already increasing.
Roseth agrees with the Germans’ conclusion.
– There are some ambiguous moments here regarding how the United States and other countries failed in their support of Ukraine. I believe that Europe and Norway must wake up and plan to bear a greater share of the burden of European security.
If we do not recognize the threat Russia poses to Norway and Europe, and do not prepare ourselves to respond to the challenge of power and deter Russia’s ambitions, it will be tempting for Russia to use military force to challenge countries like Georgia and Moldova. And Armenia, continues the expert.
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arms race
Over time, the United States has directed its course toward China and away from Europe regarding what it sees as the main threat to the future.
NATO has long declared that it must shoulder greater responsibility itself.
Roseth does not believe that European countries have a unified perception of the extent of the threat posed by Russia.
– I am concerned about the future of European security, because Russia seems to have time on its side when Europe does not take the necessary steps to increase arms and ammunition production. Roseth says Russia does this, but not Europe.
– He added: “If you wake up now and help Ukraine with what it needs to regain as much territory as possible, I think we stand in a more secure future than if we stand passively and hope things go well.”
– Can we call it an arms race?
– Yes, there will be an arms race, especially if Russia wins the war in whole or in part. Russia will become more authoritarian and militaristic, and if it does not respond in quantity and has a reliable defence, it will be more vulnerable to Russian power influence with a large and powerful army, Roseth answers.
– In the current situation one can do nothing but buy a good insurance policy against an aggressive Russia.
Read also: Trump’s headache in Ukraine: – It will be decisive
– FifthKeen to understand how Russia works
According to the report, Russia can train 280,000 new recruits for its defense every year. Over six years, this number reaches 1.7 million soldiers. Over 10 years, this amounts to approximately 2.8 million soldiers.
By being trained by soldiers currently fighting in Ukraine, the recruits will benefit from accumulated combat experience.
– The invasion in Europe made us realize that Russia has developed to have regional ambitions and that it poses a real threat, not least a nuclear specter. This means that many knew that the post-Cold War lull until last year was an exception in European security policy, Roseth says.
He goes on to say that the war in Ukraine has given us a lot of valuable information about how to evaluate Russia’s tactics and capabilities on the battlefield.
– How well Western weapons systems fare against Russian weapons systems is interesting. These experiences are very important to take home with you, the expert says.
– It is very important that we understand how Russia operates, and that those lessons are applied in Norwegian and Allied defense. So the next war will be different from the previous one, but it is important that we gain new relevant knowledge.
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