Carbon dioxide emissions are increasing: – Not going in the right direction

The Center for Climate Research released its 18th annual analysis of global carbon dioxide emissions on Tuesday. It is therefore estimated that the total this year will be 1.1 percent higher than last year.

We are still seeing record growth in clean energy, but at the same time we have not been able to adequately control the growth in fossil fuels. Therefore, global carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise, says lead researcher Glenn Peters at Cicero in a press release. He is part of the leadership team of the Global Carbon Project, which is behind the report.

There is still some uncertainty about the growth of CO2 emissions, as there are still a few weeks left in 2023.

Not on schedule

In recent years, growth has averaged 0.5 percent. Emissions are now 6 percent higher than when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015.

– The evolution of global emissions is not going in the right direction and clearly shows that action is more urgent than ever if we want to have a chance to reach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to below 2 degrees, says Kristin Halvorsen, Director Cicero.

– She says that Norway and the world should move away from investments in new oil, gas and coal supplies.

Airplane, China and India

CO2 emissions from coal are expected to increase by 1.1 percent and reach a new peak this year. The previous peak was in 2014. The increase comes mainly from China and India, while there is a decline in emissions from coal in the USA and the European Union.

For oil, emissions are likely to increase by 1.5 percent, but are still below the level recorded in 2019, that is, before the pandemic. Emissions from gas are increasing by half a percent this year – and here the decline in the European Union is expected to offset a large part of the growth in China.

Most of the growth in emissions comes from international aviation and from India and China. But for the latter, it could have been worse, had the country not also developed renewable energy, explains lead researcher Jan-Ivar Korsbakken at Cicero.

– China has achieved strong, sustained growth in wind and solar energy. Without this increase, emissions growth would have been much higher. But growth in solar and wind power has not been enough to meet sharply increasing demand for electricity as hydropower production declines due to drought. Korsbakken says this has led to an increase in coal-fired power.

In addition, emissions from transportation and travel increased after a pandemic-related decline last year.

Overturned the two-degree target

Less gasoline and diesel

Although the project did not look specifically at Norwegian emissions, lead researcher Robbie Andrew says indicators from two of the sectors with the biggest emissions could give an idea of ​​the direction things are headed.

– Monthly figures from the oil and gas sector until September suggest that emissions in Norway may end up slightly lower than in 2022, while monthly figures for domestic sales of petroleum products until September show a decline of around 2 percent for gasoline and 5 percent. . “For diesel,” Andrew says.

Although most of the change in emissions from Norwegian road transport in recent years is due to fluctuations in the share of biofuels, electric cars now reduce Norwegian emissions by more than 1 million tons of CO2.₂ every year. He says this is rising as the number of electric cars increases.

But at the same time as smaller quantities of gasoline and diesel were sold, jet fuel consumption increased by 18 percent, in line with the return of domestic air traffic to the same level as it was before the pandemic, Cicero points out.