We are heading towards dangerous turning points in the world’s climate. But society can also reach a positive turning point.
Most people will have registered that the climate summit will be held in Dubai. In advance, Cicero researchers published a time log in which they determined that the race was aiming to meet the 1.5 degree target. With today’s carbon dioxide levels and continuing emissions, it would take an extraterrestrial miracle to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. For those who don’t believe in such things, the next goal is to keep the planet below an average temperature rise of 1.5 degrees. Two degrees. This is with middle Which is essential here, because behind the average hides the kind of extreme events we have been reminded of in abundance in recent years, not least in 2023, which is set to be the hottest on record (as far as data is available), by a good margin.
While the Norwegians trembled The world went through an unusually cold period in early December, and many in their cool minds were probably imagining some warming, and data came in that showed November 2023 globally was 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The year as a whole was 1.46 degrees warmer than the same reference point. The rising ocean temperature has blown away all expectations.
Next year won’t necessarily be warmer, but within seven or eight years we should definitely be above a 1.5 degree increase. This does not mean that “the race is over,” but that the temperature rises every tenth of a degree, making matters noticeably worse. Therefore, 1.8 degrees is much better than two degrees, which in turn is much better than 2.5, let alone three degrees, which is where we are headed.
Therefore, stronger pressures are needed, and it is no longer sufficient to manipulate current developments or marginal adjustments to fixed interest rates.
At the meeting of the Conference of the Parties A new report was presented last Wednesday in which we point out dangerous tipping points and estimated temperature thresholds. A tipping point is characterized by the system reaching a threshold after prolonged exposure where a dramatic transition to another, often irreversible, state suddenly occurs.
What kind of systems are we talking about? The Amazon could turn into a savannah (with the consequence that forest-bound carbon ends up in the atmosphere, and biodiversity and indigenous habitats are irreversibly lost), and the Greenland ice sheet reaches irreversible melting (which will lead to Seven meters) of sea level rise, even over a thousand years or more), or further thawing of permafrost would also lead to significant emissions of carbon dioxide, and in the worst case also methane, into the atmosphere. Mangrove forests, seagrasses and coral reefs are also important systems that can reach thresholds of what they can sustain. The most dangerous set of Northern European, especially Norwegian, eyes is the acute weakening of the circulation in the North Atlantic, what we colloquially call the Gulf Stream.
None of these Tipping points mean the end of the world, but many involve irreplaceable loss of ecosystems and will intensify climate impacts. It is also worth noting that the loss of nature cannot be just one loss consequence of these turning points, but it also helps catalyze them. The turning points will also have major geopolitical consequences, escalating migrations and human suffering.
This feedback is technically called self-reinforcing positive Feedback Even if the impacts are negative – but the report also addresses the kind of positive turning points we need now. Society is constantly experiencing big or small “tipping points” where we can suddenly reverse an old habit. It’s often not painful either, and such sudden changes can become the new norm within a short period of time. Women got the right to vote, maybe it wasn’t so stupid? Women have gained access to higher education, something that was previously unimaginable, is now evident.
A prime example is the smoking law. It is smart to use law and economics in such transformations. And of course we’re talking about new technologies, electric cars are a good example of how economical gadgets can have a positive ripple effect (even if the electric car isn’t climate neutral either). Such positive comments are not something that can come instead of Reduce emissions, but at best help.
Perhaps the most important Most importantly, we must talk about real changes in the system, and a new vision for the future, separate from the linear growth model to which we now seem trapped. In the long term, the “green transition” cannot provide the basis for further material growth in the world. The part of the world we live in, a growth that also requires that we be provided almost constantly by nature.
What do we want from society? What is the good life, and how can development be reversed so that it responds to the two greatest moral challenges of the day: how to overcome stark (and growing) inequality, and how to think long-term and move away from the discounting of the future in which we are engaged today.
There is controversy about the existence of tipping points, and it is self-evident that temperature thresholds cannot be precisely calculated. However, all systems have their limitations. Turning points should be partly a precautionary reminder of what we risk – and a catalyst for the rapid, sweeping changes that are needed.
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