Rystad believes that solar explosion will mitigate global warming

Solar energy could be the “mobile phone” that turns the energy system upside down, says analyst Jarand Rystad. It will be an egg for Norway.

– Solar energy has potential that people have not yet exploited, says Jarand Rystad of Rystad Energy.

Solar prices have dropped like a stone, and the market is flooded with cheap solar panels.

Solar energy has developed so dramatically that experts can hardly believe what they are seeing:

• As much as 76 percent more solar power was installed last year than the previous year worldwide.
• More than half of that project was built in China, figures from Rystad Energy and Bloomberg show.

Development is now proceeding so quickly that Rystad Energy's numbers experts believe that solar energy could turn the world's entire energy system upside down.

-Solar energy and batteries can be one disruptive technology,disruptive technology,A groundbreaking innovation that disrupts the market by making the current business model irrelevant It is cheaper and better than all other forms of energy. Rystad says it could change the entire energy picture in the same way that the mobile phone revolutionized communications.

– It outperforms fossil energy

His company analyzed the potential of 24 technologies needed to replace fossil fuels in a zero-emissions society. At the same time, they looked at how 59 different sectors can get the energy they need in a society with almost no emissions.

The result was a fairly bright picture of the future:

Technology is on track to be able to limit global warming to 1.6-1.9 degrees. So “Much less than two degreesMuch less than two degreesThe Paris Agreement stipulates that global warming must be kept “well below” two degrees Celsius, and preferably not exceed 1.5 degrees. », which is the basic goal that all countries of the world are working towards.

This will happen not because we stop producing oil, gas and coal, but because new technologies are overtaking and taking over fossil energy, Rystad says.

Solar energy, batteries, electric vehicles and carbon capture and storage will be the main drivers in the green transition.

For Norway, the analysis means an egg of good news:

1. The temperature rise may be less than feared
2. All the gas Norway produces will still be needed
3. Energy becomes cheaper

Energy becomes mass production

The latter is mainly due to the fact that solar and batteries will become very cheap over time and will be integrated into the infrastructure. Energy is no longer produced only in large, complex power plants. Instead, much depends on mass production.

Rystad explains that energy prices will fall in the long term in the same way that textiles and electronics have.

I couldn't believe my own numbers

Solar panels and batteries require huge amounts of copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel and aluminium. But according to the analysis, neither the lack of minerals nor the capacity to produce panels will constitute a bottleneck in the solar revolution.

India, the United States, Malaysia and Vietnam are all betting big on solar panel factories.

China's plans are so offensive that analysts couldn't believe their eyes when they saw the numbers. So, they tracked construction sites to see if factories had actually sprung up.

But it's absolutely true: satellite images show that new factories are being built at an impressive pace:

“The increase in cheap Chinese solar and batteries gives me hope for the future,” Bloomberg New Energy Finance solar analyst Jenny Chase tells Aftenposten.

“I think our models are too conservative when we consider the importance of this,” she adds.

It happens everywhere

She says most analyzes now show that solar, batteries, wind and electric transportation can provide significant emissions reductions.

However, she is not quite as optimistic as Rystad about the prospects for meeting climate goals. One reason for this is that work on carbon capture and storage is on the right track.

Still needs gas

And the deluge of cheap solar batteries will not meet much of the need for Norwegian gas, according to Rystad Energy.

In line with lower demand in the EU, NCS production will be reduced:

Since Norwegian gas has the lowest climate footprint ever, Europe needs all the Norwegian gas it can get in the coming decades, according to Rystad.