The most influential leader of Europe's far-right wing, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, will struggle to unite the factions after the EU elections. Meanwhile, the upcoming parliamentary elections could give the wing new strength.
Democracy expert Nick Seater thinks so. He is Professor of Political Economy in the Department of Jurisprudence and Governance at BI Norwegian Business School, and Professor of Political Science at the Central European University in Vienna.
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– Not as big as expected
The far-right wave in the European Union elections is exaggerated. Yes, in Italy, the Fratelli d'Italia party achieved almost 30%, but they took their votes from another party on the same wing, the Lega. In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats came behind the Green Party. In Austria, the Austrian Freedom Party performed well, but not as well as expected. In Germany, the AfD has overtaken the ruling SPD, a clear manifestation of the erosion of government, but the Christian Democrats in the CDU and CSU are still the largest. In Slovakia, the Progressive Socialist Party overtook the leftist, pro-Russian populist Smer Party. So the right-wing wave that everyone was talking about had hit, but it wasn't as big as expected. What will be exciting are national elections in Austria, France and Germany, among others, Sitter tells Netafsen.
– The distance is great
Nick Seeter argues that there are two important dividing lines dividing the far right in Europe:
– One is from Russia's point of view, and the other is from the point of view of how much they want to destroy democracy, as the Fidesz party did in Hungary.
He says this about the possibility of gathering:
– If the six main parties want to come together, they must sit down, talk together and make a decision. Do they want a unified external right side or not? The parties concerned are Law and Justice in Poland, Fidesz in Hungary, the Freedom Party of Austria in Austria, Fratelli d'Italia in Italy, the National Rally in France, and the Alternative for Germany party in Germany. I don't think we'll get any clarification any time soon. These two dimensions, with Jinnah belonging to the anti-Russian and pro-democracy side, make the distance so great that I doubt whether they are able to marshal their forces.
Optimist Viktor Orbán
Sunday 9 June was the last and biggest election day in the EU elections. Hundreds of millions of Europeans in 27 countries went to the polls to determine who would fill the European Parliament's 720 seats. Here national parties form alliances across national borders.
The EU elections also represent a test of strength ahead of national elections, which became evident in France where the National Rally (National Assembly) party advanced strongly and President Emmanuel Macron felt forced to call new elections.
In the European Parliament, the center-right European People's Party (EPP) coalition is the largest party group, but the far-right wing could become the second largest, if they can unite. Today, these parties are mainly divided into two party groups, the Identity and Democracy Party, to which the National Rally belongs among other groups, and the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, which is led by Italian Giorgia Meloni of Fratelli d'Italia.
“If the ECR and the ID group agree with each other and we join the cooperation, the right will come second, before the Progressives, the Greens and the New Europe,” said Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary and leader of the optimistic Hungarian Workers’ Party. Fides, in a television interview after the European Union elections.
After his party, Fidesz, was expelled from the European People's Party in 2021, its members in the European Parliament had no group affiliation.
– He cannot be Putin's best friend
– Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says that he sees hope in the progress of the National Assembly in France and that another victory for Marine Le Pen in the national parliamentary elections will guarantee the support of peaceniks, which Orban calls opponents of arms for Ukraine. A 1-0 lead in the first half and that a Trump victory in the United States would guarantee victory in the second half. What do you think about this analysis?
– The National Assembly will never win a majority in the French Parliament, and foreign policy in any case is in the Elysee Palace. Through his statements, Orban shows that he lacks understanding of Marine Le Pen's strategy and the system of government in France. Le Pen will have to moderate her pro-Russian stance significantly. If you are going to win the elections in France, you cannot be Putin's best friend. Setter says Le Pen learned from Italian Giorgia Meloni.
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Challenge vids
In Hungary, the new opposition party TISA received nearly 30 percent of the votes in the EU elections. What can Opposition Leader Peter Magyar and Tessa use their new position for?
– The big question is whether this could lead to a split in Fidesz or not. Fidesz lost 8-10% of support, and this is the first time the opposition has given Fidesz such a shot at the arm. If this happens again in the next round, in the parliamentary elections in 2026, it could be of great importance. It is important to note that TISA not only won votes in the capital but in other parts of the country as well. This is despite the fact that Fidesz used enormous resources in the election campaign, and in many places only Fidesz election posters were seen. The other side of the coin for Tessa is that they got their votes from the opposition. Fidesz still has a strong position, says Seiter.
He points out that the decline in support from the 52.3 percent achieved by the Fidesz coalition in the 2019 European Union elections, to 44.6 currently, is not a bad thing.
– something that almost all government parties would be happy to do, in the middle of two parliamentary elections, but if it continues in the 2026 parliamentary elections, it could become important.
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