Controversy over the future of the Norwegian continental shelf – E24

Days are busy at Rosenberg Werft in Stavanger. The job scope of the Jotun ship has increased. There is also a shipyard Agreement On stage at Walhalla Stadium with Aker BP and Aker Solutions.

– Get good orders in coming years. Hopefully the oil market will continue to do well. In the next few years, it will also be important to position ourselves within the sea breeze, because there will be a lot to come later, says club president Erlend Nygaard on E24 in Rosenberg.

– At present there is unusually high activity due to the oil tax package, and it may not be purely luck. After all, it passes once, and then the question is how big the fallout will be, he says.

– A commitment that is felt

Norway’s most important industry is bringing in more money than ever.

Before the New Year, the industry offers many new development projects, investments worth hundreds of billions.

– It’s an investment that will be felt in the city and the countryside, said Aker BP CEO Carl Jonny Herzvik when he presented a total of ten development projects on Friday this week.

At the same time, the oil debate has intensified. Enthusiasts have tried Stick with it To Munch’s “Scream,” watercolors were thrown monolithic And Blocked ski slopes. Some are willing to go to jail to stop oil exploration.

Climate activists insist that the world’s carbon budget will soon be used up, although the industry points out that, among other things, Europe is dependent on Norwegian oil and gas instead of Russian supplies.

PS! The 1.5-degree target allows for 380 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent or nine more years of additional global climate emissions at current emission levels. Scientists Norwegian Cicero from others.

Trustee at Aker Brygge

A colorful model lights up the display at Rystad Energy in Aker Brygge. Norwegian oil and gas production won’t begin to decline until 2030, CEO Jarand Rystad estimates.

– As you can see, he points out on the screen that there will be a strong boost in the next four years.

He is “very optimistic” about the competitiveness and functionality of Norway’s continental shelf. In the long term, he believes that there will be a rapid global green transition, that oil demand will decline by the 2030s, and that the Norwegian continental shelf will adjust and generate more offshore wind by 2040.

– He says there will be a large but gradual shift from core activity oil and gas to new forms of green energy, including the reuse of oil platforms for hydrogen production and CO₂ removal.

– No need to worry

Rystad believes the problem with the supplier industry is more activity than it is falling.

– Actually, it’s a very good time, he says.

After several smaller projects on the shelf in 2022-24, he believes offshore wind projects could come in 2025-27.

– He says there is no reason to worry in Norway that activity will slow down.

He believes the answer to climate challenges is not to stop oil and gas, but to invest in new solutions rather than fossil energy.

– He says that if you start cutting something before you have alternatives, you create energy crises and disruptions in the world and make things worse.

– The green transition is driven by greater investment in solar, wind and batteries.

Equinor Top promises consistent performance

Jez Averty, exploration manager at Equinor, will continue to focus on oil and gas, but also embraces low-carbon solutions such as hydrogen, CO₂ purification and offshore wind.

– Averty tells E24 that we are betting on high, long-term, predictable investments in oil and gas on the continental shelf to increase the value of existing infrastructure and ensure significant cash flow.

– We are going to invest NOK 50 billion in the continental shelf every year, he added.

Although the larger projects will eventually be replaced by many smaller ones, he believes the activity will remain stable. Old fields need to be rehabilitated and maintained. The recovery is to be increased by drilling more wells. The platforms are to be powered by cables from the shore. CO₂ must be stored in the basement. There may also be offshore wind and hydrogen projects.

– Fall is inevitable

Averti believes production levels on the shelf will remain “very high” until 2030, before it starts to decline.

– Fall is inevitable, but the speed of the fall depends on exploration and increased recovery. The more we search and the more we take steps to increase recovery, he says, the slower the decline will be.

– He adds that access to land will be very decisive for how steep the decline in production will be.

SV will stop searching

In Storting’s walking hall, Lars Haltbrecken (SV) can laugh after this year’s budget negotiations.

At the same time as Equinor’s autumn conference, news came that SV had approved the postponement of the 26th offer round until 2025. This is an important victory, Haltbrekken points out.

– We want to abandon all plans for new oil and gas exploration and new production permits, he tells E24.

Haltbrekken is not worried that the shipyards will run out of oil and gas projects when tidal development projects are completed from 2022. Instead, he fears shipyards will have to do so much that there will be no room for offshore wind projects.

“We’ve given such big incentives to the oil and gas industry that we’re delaying the transition we need to make, and those jobs and offshore wind production are going to other countries,” he says.

– We are talking about offshore wind and hydrogen, but we earn incredibly from oil and gas. What do you think we should do?

– We should have made it less profitable and removed the Corona support package altogether. We voted against it in 2020, which made the programs more profitable. No doubt this came at the expense of other things. Money, expertise and labor went into it, says Haltbrecken.

– Have faith in many things

Per Steiner Stamnes, base manager at Industri Energi at Equinor, had nothing for the detractors outside of Equinor’s autumn conference.

– If you want to affect things, you have to contribute yourself. He says standing outside will not help.

Stamness doesn’t think this year’s development plans will be the last on the shelf.

– I think there will be more. There will be a bit of a rush now because of the tax package, but I believe you will be able to offer more packages and programs in the future, he tells E24.

– It is incredibly important that we have a smooth transition, not such peaks all the time. That’s why Equinor is trying to spread this out over time, says Stamnes.

Fear of “quick death”.

Stamnes fears the consequences for Equinor and the supplier industry if exploration and new projects slow down.

– Shipyards have little to do if projects like Wisting or projects from other companies are not available. If you can’t build a new industry based on wind farms, then. We are hoping to create a new industry over the old one, he says.

Equinor recently postponed the Wisting project until 2026. Stamnes believes in new innovations and developments linked to existing departments, which will contribute to existing contracts for changes, modifications and maintenance.

– If we do not achieve anything new, if we stop searching and find nothing, then at one point or another there will be a quick death. Then the costs will meet the income, and we will reduce the life of the shelf. Then unemployment will be high, says Stamnes.