The Atlantic Ocean's ocean current ecosystem could collapse already by the 2030s.
New one thinks so Stady From recognized researchers at Utrecht University in the Netherlands to demonstrate this.
The study is discussed by Several international media outletsbut has not yet been peer-reviewed.
The collapse of these ocean currents would cause major and irreversible changes in weather and climate around the world. For northern Europe, it could lead to a climate similar to northern Canada and Alaska.
Children are the most affected.
Keeping Europe Moderate
It’s the vast ocean currents (AMOC, or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Norwegian) that scientists are most concerned about now. Simply put, the AMOC carries warm water from the equator toward the poles, and cold water back toward the equator. The Gulf Stream is part of this.
Since the AMOC ensures milder winters in Europe than would otherwise be the case, it is an essential part of global climate regulation.
In 2021, scientists warned that this ocean current was weaker than it had been in 1,600 years. Researchers now fear that the ocean current collapse could occur between 2037 and 2064, with the greatest likelihood of occurring before 2050.
Collapse of the track: The illustration shows parts of the AMOC, which scientists now believe could collapse even earlier than previously feared. Image: NOAA
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According to the study, there is a 59% chance that trading will stop before 2050.
The study was conducted by modelling after observing changes in an “ideal” area for changes in the circulation in the South Atlantic.
“This is very worrying,” ocean and atmospheric researcher and study co-author Rene van Westen tells CNN.
The new study isn't the first to conclude this. A Danish study did the same thing last year, but researchers now think it could happen even sooner.
Predicts 360,000 deaths
It can become “unknown”.
The Atlantic Ocean circulation is one of the so-called “tipping points” that are being talked about in relation to climate change. Van Westen explains that the collapse of the AMOC comes on top of climate change, which is leading to more heat waves, droughts and floods.
Assuming the AMOC collapses, parts of the world could become “indistinguishable.”
In the decades following the collapse, not only will Europe become colder in winter, but so will North America. The fear is also that the Amazon rainforest could collapse as the rainy season turns upside down, turning the wet season into a dry season and vice versa.
“Until two years ago, we discussed whether this would happen at all, with some form of low risk but high severity. In just a few years, it seems likely that this will happen,” renowned oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf of the University of Potsdam in Germany told CNN.
He was not involved in this study, but has researched the subject for several years.
Five years ago, Rahmstorf himself estimated that the AMOC had a 10 percent chance of collapse. With five new studies since then, the risk is now estimated at more than 50 percent, Rahmstorf told CNN.
– I never saw his colleague.
– Undervalued
Andreas Nyholm, a meteorologist at Danish Channel 2, also commented on the study for the channel. He stresses that there is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding some of the assumptions that underpin the study, but nevertheless says the following:
“The whole world will face challenges in terms of food production and where people can live, as the collapse will lead to major changes in global weather patterns,” Nyholm told Danish Television 2.
He is personally concerned about the risk of the AMOC collapsing, but he stresses that he is more generally concerned about the consequences of global warming.
Rahmstorf also emphasizes that the research on the AMOC and the modeling being done around the collapse is new, and that there are still challenges in this research.
The problem, he believes, is underestimating how quickly the collapse will occur, rather than overestimating it.
He gives an example of why:
As global temperatures rise, the ice in Greenland will rise more and more, and the amount of precipitation over the sea will increase. More fresh water entering the North Atlantic will reduce the density of the water mass, eventually stopping the circulation of water.
Salt content result Decreasingone of the biggest drivers of trading, models fail to capture, Ramstoff explains.
In a 2023 report, the UN Climate Panel (IPCC) concluded that it was “fairly confident” that the North Atlantic Ocean currents would not suddenly collapse by 2100.
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