– Disaster Declaration – V.G

The Det Norske Veritas (DNV) foundation presents a report on Tuesday that believes Norway can forget its new climate targets of 55 percent cuts by 2030. – Predicted disaster, NHO says.

– We estimate that Norway will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent from 1990 levels by 2030, subject to future political decisions and technologies. That’s less than half of the government’s target of a 55 percent reduction, says Sverre Alvik, head of research on the energy transition from DNV to VG.

In their model, Norway would reduce emissions by 79 percent in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Norway is aiming for 100 percent cuts as part of global work against man-made climate change.

The report was prepared and produced in collaboration with the Norwegian Industry Confederation at Næringslivets Hovedorganisation, which organizes several large companies in Norway.

This is the third time that DNV has produced a report on the Norwegian energy transition and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Norwegian officials estimate that 25 percent could be cut Today’s Adopted policies and procedures. The rest of the emission reductions will reach Norway Climate goals 55 percent should be taken up with policies and measures not adopted or implemented.

– Not a trick up his sleeve

In its latest statement, DNV says this is untrue:

– On the other hand, what do we think can be achieved with future technology and political will to reduce emissions? And we don’t see any tricks or anything else that’s good enough to achieve the goals, says Alvik.

– Are you more pessimistic about Norway’s climate mitigation than the government?

– Yes. We do not see the necessary tough measures coming with the current policy or future policy.

NHO: Disaster declared

Norway has written a foreword to the industry report.

– This is a predicted disaster. The report is dramatic and crushing, says Steen Lier-Hansen, head of Norwegian Industry.

– We are miles away from reaching the climate targets, and when we are so far away, Norway’s strengthening of the climate target to 55 percent by 2030 is absurd, says Lear-Hansen.

The report points out that the majority of Norway’s energy consumption already comes from low-emission sources, as the Norwegian power system is dominated by hydropower. Emissions from sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as heavy industry, heavy transport, oil and gas production and agriculture, must be reduced to meet the targets.

DNV concludes that high electricity prices combined with Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and expected power shortages between 2026-2030 are hindering the growth of the new green industry.

– Investments in green value chains are stalling because there is and will be a significant shortage of electricity, Lear-Hansen says.

– Ensures that Norwegian business is at the forefront

Ragnhild Sjoner Syrstad, state secretary at the Ministry of Climate and Environment, admits VG has a long way to go, but says climate cuts must be attacked “like eating an elephant”:

– One piece at a time. One state budget at a time. “We are on the right track, but we are honest that we can achieve the climate goals by adding new policies every year,” says Syrstad.

– The government has recently set out how it wants to achieve its climate targets by 2030. Climate status and plan. We are on a steady course towards the 2030 goals Non-reserved sector Through measures such as low and zero emission requirements, more biofuels, increased climate taxes and climate support for agriculture to name a few.

Norway cooperates with the EU to achieve climate goals.

The Secretary of State insists that Norway must become a low-emission society by 2050. Adjustment targets Norway to reduce emissions.

– In this way, we ensure that Norwegian business remains at the forefront and competes in a changing global market.

Sirstad points out that major advances towards 2050 will be made through the government agency Enova, which will contribute to climate mitigation and investments leading to new technology.

– The government has greatly increased allocations to Enova and the money is going to support new technology in areas such as hydrogen, offshore wind, smart energy systems and electrification of transport and more. By 2050, carbon capture and storage will be more important, says Syrstad, which the government is supporting with Langskip, a full-scale CO₂ handling project.

Almlid: A whole career is ready

Ole Erik Almlid, CEO of the Norwegian Business Association, believes the report makes the case for more investment in Norwegian industry as part of the solution:

– We should not be the best on climate targets, but on climate reductions. The entire sector is ready to contribute. Almlit tells VG that more non-fossil energy is needed if it is to have any chance of achieving its goals.

He pays tribute to the government for announcing an increase in gas processing capacity for offshore wind projects, but outlines the changes NHO wants as part of the solution:

– Faster investments and areas in offshore wind, more onshore wind, more development of hydropower, more solar and more energy efficiency. In sum, ensure that all measures are functional.

Bellona chairman Frederic Hauge is aware of the content of the report and says he believes the road ahead for Norway will be tough. However, he points out some possibilities:

– Gas power with carbon capture and storage (CCS) on the shelf should be urgently explored. Offshore wind fits this well, but will only make a significant contribution after 2030, says Hauge.

Loss of income

The DNV report points to a sharp drop in Norway’s revenue, as the oil age comes to an end, even if we are able to export other energy carriers.

“Energy and hydrogen exports will grow toward 2050, but will account for only 20 percent of today’s energy export revenues. At the same time, oil and gas revenues are expected to decline by nearly 80 percent as demand for oil and gas declines.

– Is Norway’s climate policy a “predicted disaster”?

– Most countries are able to reduce more than Norway, but the main reason for this is that Norway’s electricity production is largely renewable and areas other than energy production must be found to reduce emissions. For example, we should start with carbon. catch Was it announced? Many environmental organizations would certainly say that Norway is not doing enough. From DNV’s side, we have been saying the same thing for the last three years, that Norway will not meet the targets in 2030 or 2050. Actions are not enough, says Alvik at DNV.