Extreme hike in Oslo's Opus

Recent figures from Obos show an increase in January of 5.5 percent nationally and a full 7 percent in Oslo,

– This was more than expected. Prices tend to rise in January, but this was more than usual, and must be seen in light of the fact that Obos prices fell by more than four percent in Oslo in December, Obos chief economist Sissel Monsvold says in a press release.

– We expected a price increase in January, but it may not reach seven percent. Our brokers report great activity and many who go to shows, adds Managing Director Hans Anders Skjølberg at Obos Eiendomsmeglere.

On average, Opus prices in the capital have risen 3.9 percent in January over the past 10 years, so this year the increase is twice as high as it usually is.

Price drop as of January 2022

However, due to a drop in prices during the fall of 2022, prices for used Obos apartments in Oslo have fallen by 1.5 percent in the past twelve months. Nationally, prices fell 1.1 percent from January 2022 to January 2023.

The square meter price of used OBOS homes was NOK 76,335 in the Oslo region in January, and NOK 65,579 nationwide.

Obos prices fell sharply in December, but Obos numbers fluctuate much more than the overall real estate market. Moreover, December is a month of small volumes, so the results can be quite large. Obos statistics cover about 25 percent of the second-hand market in Oslo.

Strong increase in sales

According to Munsvold, activity in the housing market picked up sharply in January, after a December slump. The same conditions are provided by DNB Eiendom (see below). The number of sales in January this year was also higher than the same month in the previous two years.

– This may indicate that many have chosen to postpone buying an apartment until after the new year, in anticipation of the relaxation of lending regulations. It helps, says Munsvold, that more people can borrow than before.

The chief economist doesn’t think housing prices will continue to rise beyond the year:

Although price growth recovered in January, we expect higher lending rates, a higher cost of living, and many unsold homes to dampen price growth in the summer, and to be weaker than usual. We estimate that prices at the end of the year will be about 2 percent lower than they were in December 2022 on a national basis.

In Oslo, we think prices will drop by about three percent. This is because interest rate increases hit hard in the capital as a result of soaring home prices and high debt. the

DNB Eiendom will be released on Wednesday with an update before Eiendom Norge comes out with January numbers on Friday. The main point of DNB is that buyers are back in the market.

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Good start all around

– Our own figures indicate that there has been a good start to the year in almost all parts of the country, says Managing Director Renate Soerstrand Hansen of DNB Eiendom in a message.

January is usually a good sales month and also the month when home prices go up the most. A 3 percent increase is not unusual, but in January last year the increase was as high as 4.8 percent. That was it The strongest rise was recorded in Januarybut this was also due to the new regulations Status reporting requirements.

The housing market will far from the same height this year, turned into the fall. But based on its own numbers, DNB Eiendom expects a seasonally adjusted rate decline of 0.7-1.0 percent. In practical terms, this means that prices have risen somewhat less than usual during the month.

But DNB signifies more interested parties, more viewed registrations and more bidders. Relaxation in lending regulations Which came before Christmas, however, was positive for homebuyers, although there are prospects for more rate hikes and continued strong rate growth in general.

suspended this fall

The number of unsold homes is declining, and homes that have been sold for a while are being sold.

– There are likely to be some who put their buying plans on hold this fall and are now back on the market. A good number of homes are being advertised each day, and in general we see that more homes are now being sold than advertised, says Soerstrand Hansen.

And in Oslo there was good press, particularly in East Oslo. Bergen and Western Norway also had a good start to the housing year.

– In Bergen, we’re now seeing more homes being advertised than being sold, and homes selling quickly, on average in less than 20 days. Also in Trondheim and Oslo, the average is less than 20 days, says Sorstrand Hansen.

According to DNB Eiendom, the majority of homes in Norway are now selling around the asking price. The discrepancy is less than last fall, when home prices fell significantly in most places.

Low expectations

– My impression is that those who will sell housing have also adjusted their sales price expectations as a result of the development last fall. Coming up with the right price is critical to the interest and time it takes to get a sale.

Sørestrand-Hansen believes that everything indicates that we will have a stable housing market in the coming months with an almost flat price trend. DNB Markets recently forecast in its latest economic report The housing market would turn in the springBut there will be no rapid price increase.