Russia saw a sharp drop in gas revenues in 2023. Which is bad news for Vladimir Putin (70). – Nobody dares tell him how bad things are in the economy, one expert tells VG.
state-owned Gas giant Gazprom They only earned an eighth as much in the first half of 2023 as they did in the same period in 2022, according to Oilprice.com.
– Putin’s gas weapon backfires on Putin himself, says Aage Borchgrevink to VG. He is the author of The Warlord in the Kremlin and an employee of the Helsinki Committee.
– how?
Since taxes imposed by Gazprom make up a large part of the Russian state budget, this is bad news for Putin, at least in the long term, Borchgrevink tells VG.
Mette Schak, an expert on Russia at Aarhus University, agrees:
Gazprom’s anemic accounts are further evidence that the long-term effects of Western sanctions are serious for the Russian economy. The only sector that is really taken care of is the military. There is no longer any work that can be produced in the civilian sector.
Why doesn’t Putin see this?
Putin is sitting in a bubble, an echo chamber. And now that he’s got rid of Wagner’s boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, it’s not just a sign of concrete reprisals – it’s a sign that no one should criticize the war or Putin’s economic actions.
– Why is it like that?
– Putin is becoming more and more surrounded by people who belittle him. They don’t dare tell him how bad it is. Putin follows the same policy as before, not knowing how bad things are. Therefore, he is heading the Russian economy towards the abyss faster than if he were surrounded by honest people who told him of the seriousness of the economy.
Schack understands that Putin has played a dangerous game with regard to gas exports to Europe.
– Now the European market is almost gone – except for some gas being sent through Ukraine, and incomes are falling like a stone.
– What about other markets, such as China?
– Because of the price ceiling for Russian oil and gas, adopted by the Group of Seven, both China and India have been hawkish in negotiations over imports from Russia. They have called for deep deductions, says Schack, who adds that the value of the ruble has fallen sharply in 2023.
Aage Borchgrevink answers as follows when we ask what Putin wants to do now:
His strategy now seems to be to close the gates and hope the West will tire of supporting Ukraine. There is a presidential election in the United States next year, and if Trump wins, it is conceivable that the United States will change its policy. But right now, Putin himself seems to have a problem.
admits Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom, one of Putin’s closest business associates The company’s Telegram channel He said there was a clear decline in demand for Russian gas in 2022 and 2023, but he takes comfort in the fact that Gazprom accounted for more than half of the increase in Chinese gas imports.
Company Still only serving The price is the same as it was in the first half of 2023 as in the first half of 2022.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday that Russia is ready to sell more gas to Turkey, and also wants to establish a hub for its gas exports there, reports said. palm.
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