Easter falls at the end of March and the first quarter of the year. So the stage is set for a number of new macro numbers next week.
Monday is still a public holiday in Norway, but in the United States there are numbers for the so-called Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which gives an indication of how industry is performing in the world's largest economy.
According to Trading Economics, the consensus expects the PMI to reach 48.4 for March, up from 47.8 in February. A PMI above 50 indicates increasing activity, while below 50 indicates activity is declining.
-The most important thing to monitor is prices. If they increase, they affect price pressure in the economy, which in turn can increase inflation and contribute to a longer peak in interest rates, says Kerry M. Knudsen, chief economist at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank.
Open to lower interest rates
On Wednesday, the stage was set for new Eurozone inflation numbers.
The previous figure was 2.6 percent for overall inflation and 3.1 percent for core inflation. “So we are closer than ever to the 2 percent target and the big question is whether or not we will get a rate cut in June,” Knudsen says.
The next interest rate meeting will be in June, and before that there will be two more inflation numbers.
– I believe that Europe will cut interest rates before the United States of America, during the interest rate meeting on June 6. The chief economist believes this would be a nice summer gift for everyone in Europe who has a loan, as well as for Norges Bank because it could open the way for lower interest rates in Norway before the summer.
The most important of the month
But on Friday, the most important figure of the month comes, which is the labor market report from the United States. In February, 275,000 jobs were created outside the agricultural sector in the United States, and now analysts expect 200,000 jobs to be created on average. In addition, there are unemployment figures and wage growth.
It will be a quiet week for listed companies. On Thursday, Schibsted will present its annual report for 2023, while on Friday Norwegian will release its traffic figures for March.
It will not revive the housing market
There will also be a week where we gain more knowledge about the housing market. On Tuesday, Obos will present its prices, while on Thursday Eiendom Norge will present a broader picture of the situation.
Housing Numbers: Knudsen is cautious about reviving the housing market. Photo: Eyvind Jegeseth
– I think Norwegian house prices will be fairly stagnant in March – as they have been doing for practically the whole of last year, says Knudsen.
The chief economist says many people report that the housing market has rebounded recently, which he believes may be too soon. Knudsen believes, among other things, that it gives a more correct picture to compare price rises with the same month last year, rather than with the previous month.
– The most important thing to follow now is the housing mountain, that is, the number of unsold homes on the market. This number has actually decreased in recent months, but the main reason for this is that an unusual number of people have taken their homes off the market. If it goes up for sale again, we'll be able to see something similar to what happened last fall: the housing mountain grows.
He also points out that regional differences are significant.
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