On Thursday at 10am, Norges Bank will issue its final interest rate decision before the summer.
Do you get a little extra for rooting? Well, it all depends on the effect of the interest rate on the krone. Thursday costs one euro 11.34 Krone and one dollar 10.55 Norwegian krone.
– I think that the interest rate on Thursday will remain unchanged, and anything else will be a shock, says chief economist Nera Macic at Prognosesenteret to Nettavisen.
Central Bank Governor Ida Wolden Baş raised the interest rate for the 14th time to 4.5 percent in December. Since then the situation has been calm.
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– On the other hand, the signals for the way forward may have changed in a more hawkish direction since the last interest rate meeting, adds Macic.
Hawkete points out that interest rates need to be high to keep inflation under control, slightly raising the possibility that the first rate cut will come in December instead.
Interest rate jump: – Then the krone will strengthen
Will we get a surprise on Thursday, i.e. interest rate determination? To top it off, she has one piece of advice:
– So, it's just a matter of planning a cheaper holiday in the south this summer, because that should have a strong impact on the krone.
In this case, this is due to the fact that it was not expected and occurs immediately after the European Central Bank cuts the interest rate. This increases the difference in interest rates between Norway and Europe.
A headache for Norges Bank
Like Macic, chief economist Sarah Midtgaard at Handelsbanken believes the interest rate will remain unchanged.
-We also believe that in the interest rate path they will indicate a 30 percent probability of a rate hike in September and that there will be no rate cut until next year.
Because even though Norges Bank has forecast price growth, cost pressure is causing headaches:
In addition, interest rate expectations for our trading partners have increased since March, and in the United States there has been only one rate cut this year. Thus, interest rate cuts will also be postponed here at home, Midtgaard believes to Netafsen.
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– Two conditions are not present
Chief Strategist Dane Cekov at Nordea Markets, like the expert above, believes the interest rate will remain unchanged:
– Some have speculated about a possible increase tomorrow, but the two conditions put forward by Norges Bank for increasing new interest rates do not exist, says Sikov.
He is changing pastures on his way to the Sparebank 1 markets, where he will become a teammate of Harald Magnus Andreassen.
– Inflation was marginally lower than the Bank of Norway forecast, and the krone was stronger than expected.
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– Keep the door open after that
– However, we believe that Norges Bank is keeping the door open for a downgrade in December, says Cekoc.
It is believed that September is just a transit:
– Underlying price growth remains very high at 4.1 percent, and the outlook for the Norwegian economy is brightening. Therefore, Norges Bank is in no hurry to cut the interest rate.
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