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A drone attack carried out by the Iranian-backed “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” resulted in the death of three American soldiers and the wounding of 30 others.
The death toll is likely to rise, as there were reports of serious head injuries among those injured.
Systematic attacks
Following the October 7 attack on Israel carried out by Hamas, Iran systematically attacked US forces and interests. The Houthi attack on ships in the Red Sea is part of this. They attacked for three months before finally receiving a response from the US and UK.
The United States also responded to some attacks on its ground forces, but its response was relatively measured. Especially with regard to the scope of Iranian-backed attacks.
This shows a clear pattern that Iran wants to escalate, but the United States does not.
Jorn Sund Henriksen
Jørn Sund Henriksen was an election observer in Kiev during the Orange Revolution of 2004 and served in the Coast Guard Command. He has been involved in independent intelligence (OSINT) for more than 10 years in several conflicts and is a leader in the Norwegian-Ukrainian Society of Friends. His contributions are based on open source research and are therefore an accumulation and analysis of currently available information, with the risk of missourcing.
Criticism of Biden at home
President Biden is now being criticized in the United States for his cautious approach, and that the lack of response may have contributed to motivating Iran to carry out more attacks.
Now three soldiers have been killed, and Biden said there will be an answer.
The big question now is whether there will be a direct attack on Iran.
It may seem that Iran wants this match.
The Iranian regime is historically unpopular, and it may be convenient for them to deflect attention away from criticizing the regime in the event of a US air strike.
Iran has already exchanged air strikes with Pakistan following allegations that the terrorist attack that occurred in Iran on New Year's Day was carried out by groups with bases inside Pakistani territory.
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High voltage area
No matter how the United States chooses to respond, it will increase the risk of escalation in a region already suffering from high tension.
In light of the ongoing war in Gaza and tension between many other countries in the Middle East, any attack could trigger a chain of unexpected reactions.
Clearly, this is a danger that Iran is not afraid of.
There are more indications that they want it.
Here you can read more by Jörn Sund-Henriksen
Close ally with Russia
The escalation may also have consequences outside the region.
Iran has a close alliance with Russia.
These persistent attacks on American forces are probably very popular in Moscow. If indications emerge that Russia supported these attacks in any way, this could remove barriers to US support for Ukraine.
“black Swan”
The regional war in the Middle East is a kind of “black swan” event that may also have consequences for the US presidential election.
The possibility of an unexpected event like this may be why Nikki Haley has not dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination, despite her loss in New Hampshire.
The war in the Middle East could be an example of an event that makes many Republicans believe that Trump has become unpredictable and risky.
So they prefer a more “traditional” Republican presidential candidate.
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It will avoid escalation
It is clear that President Biden has been trying to prevent escalation in the Middle East since October 7.
Now he said the United States will respond.
Perhaps he will try to balance the answer in a way that shows that killing Americans has consequences, but at the same time does not escalate the situation too much.
I think they will attack Iranian interests in the Middle East, but initially not inside Iranian territory.
This may be the assessment made by Iran as well.
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