Last year, the European Union adopted a new climate law to price carbon emissions from fuels used, among other things, in transportation. Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2), as the law is called, will come into force from 2027.
When the law was adopted last year, EU politicians promised that the price oil companies must pay should not exceed 45 euros per ton of carbon dioxide.2. In practice, this means an increase in gasoline and diesel prices of about 10 cents, or NOK 1.15 per litre.
Briefly
But now EU politicians are uncertain about keeping that promise. to Euractiv websitePeter Lise, who was the European Parliament's chief negotiator on the matter, says he is “a bit more pessimistic now” about keeping the promise of a 45-euro cap.
EU proposal: big changes
This must be because the EU's target of cutting emissions from transport and heating is progressing more slowly than the European Commission assumed. The new climate law is based on the market: the worse Europe is at reducing the use of fossil fuels, the higher the demand for carbon dioxide certificates, which in turn will lead to higher prices for carbon emissions.
Electric car sales are declining
Emission reductions from passenger cars, the transportation sector, and home heating are proceeding very slowly. Our shared mission is to make sure we avoid such a scenario, says Les Lieuractive.
When it comes to the transport sector, he points out in particular that the transition in Germany, with the phase-out of fossil fuel cars, is progressing slowly. Electric car sales are declining.
In April 2023, 14.7% of all new cars sold were electric. In April of this year, this percentage dropped to 12.2 percent.
Lise's skepticism is shared by, among others, German Timo Wolken, who also works on environmental policy in the European Union.
– According to a new study, the price that oil companies must pay when the new law enters into force could rise to 200 euros per ton of carbon dioxide.2“, says Wølken to Euractiv.
40 NOK per litre
Exit stages
He refers to a study conducted by the German Research Center Agora Energewinde.
In this study, the researchers warn that we can expect a price of more than €200 per ton of CO22 If it doesn't convert faster. In this case, that could mean a pump price of 40 cents per liter for petrol and diesel, according to Agora Energiwende.
As a result, you could end up paying NOK 30 or more per liter of petrol and diesel when the new law comes into force in 2027.
However, there are those who believe that the price could rise further – among others the spokesperson for Swedish Bränsleopprøret (Drivstoffopprøret journ. note), Peder Blohm Bokenhjelm:
– We now see that the introduction of new regulations in the EU (ETS2) could pose a greater threat to affordable fuel prices, meaning everyone can drive a car and maintain a standard of living. We have held meetings with the fuel industry, who believe the price could eventually reach NOK 40 per liter in 2027-2028, when the EU introduces an emissions allowance system, he says for Sweden. Carup website.
Expect NOK 40 earlier
Already two years ago, Rystad Energi's chief analyst predicted, Per Magnus Nysveen“, “In the worst case we can risk 40 NOK in the summer.” This came, among other things, against the backdrop of a boycott of Russian oil and gas. Later, we learn that the price stopped at 26-27 NOK per liter and then declined since That moment.
Norwegian oil companies do not wish to comment on future fuel prices.
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