This fall, Iranian-made kamikaze planes terrorized the Ukrainian population, bombing apartment buildings, parks and power stations.
Now Ukraine may face an Iranian challenge against which they have no defense:
Iran is said to be ready to sell ballistic missiles to Vladimir Putin’s relentless war machine, according to international media, including CNN.
– This is clearly worrisome, former defender Arne Bord-Dalhaug tells Dagbladet.
He has no defense
Despite the denials of both Russia and Iran, Russian authorities went to buy this summer An unknown number of Iranian-made Shahed-136 UAVs.
This fall, so-called kamikaze aircraft struck all over Ukraine, putting to the test the Ukrainian air defense donated by the West.
The vast majority of kamikaze drones were shot down by the Ukrainian defense before hitting their targets on the ground.
This creates trouble
That wouldn’t be the case with ballistic missiles, says Lars Peder Haga, associate professor at Luftkrijskollen, part of the Norwegian Armed Forces College (FHS).
It is very difficult to defend against ballistic missiles, says Haga, an air force expert.
The Ukrainian authorities themselves admit that they do not have an effective defense against ballistic missiles.
Little time to respond
A ballistic missile is a missile that is launched into the air and then follows a ballistic trajectory, which is determined by speed and direction from the starting point, says Haga of the Norwegian Air Force School.
The missile flies up and then high into the atmosphere, or out of the atmosphere, and then falls again. They go in an arc, and when they descend, they turn towards you almost vertically. Then the missiles go to Mach 5 (1715 m/s) or Mach 6 (2058 m/s), Haga says.
This makes all ballistic missiles hypersonic, that is, five times faster than the speed of sound – Mach 5. It also makes the flight time of the missiles very short.
– Turn around in all possible places
The Russian Iskander ballistic missile has a flight time of only 15 minutes. Haga says this gives the other party a little time to respond.
It is unclear what ballistic missiles Iran will offer Russia for purchase, but it is reasonable to believe that their flight time may be similar. Supersonic speed makes it difficult to detect a ballistic missile launch.
– To detect a missile, you need powerful surveillance systems. The radar for air defense received by Ukraine is designed to detect, for example, helicopters, aircraft and cruise missiles. They won’t detect a ballistic missile launch, and they probably won’t look in the right direction, says Hagga at the Air Force Academy.
– Increasing the challenge
It will make fixed targets, such as Ukraine’s infrastructure, more vulnerable, Arne Bord Dahlhog, a retired first lieutenant, tells Dagbladet.
With this, Russia will gain an increased ability to attack Ukrainian infrastructure, says Dallhog.
In recent weeks, Russia has directed a number of attacks against the Ukrainian power grid. There are now blackouts in the country, and residents are required to provide as much electricity as possible.
On Friday alone, 4.5 million Ukrainians were without power after new attacks on Ukraine’s power grid.
– With ballistic missiles, this will be an increasing challenge in the future. This is clearly worrisome, says Dallhog, the former chief of the defense staff.
‘Mysteriously disappeared’
Both Dallhog and Haga describe the attacks as a blackmail strategy on the part of Russia. Both believe the strategy has failed, both now and historically.
– The question that arises is how much can the Ukrainian society bear. Historically, it has been shown that the population and communities can withstand a lot, and even now I have the impression that the Russian offensive campaign against the Ukrainian power grid worked against its purpose. Instead, it has brought Ukraine closer together, Haga says.
Haga believes that the effect Iran’s ballistic missiles can have depends on how many Russia buys them.
– It is quite unlikely that they will be able to buy as many ballistic missiles as these kamikaze drones. Such a ballistic missile would probably be several times more expensive than drones, and Iran probably doesn’t have much in stock either. Overall, I might not think this would be a game-changer, he says.
– Abandon the West
Not only did Iran sell kamikaze planes to Russia. American intelligence thinks so Iranian personnel were sent to Russia annexed Crimea To assist the Russian forces in the use of drones.
It represents a lasting shift in Iran’s approach to the West, says Joe Jacobsen, a professor at NTNU, an expert on international politics.
The way the regime in Iran behaves now will face Western pressure and sanctions anyway. For Iran, it does not matter what it does and does not do, and when it appears to be giving up economic interaction with the West, it must have alternatives. So they’ve turned toward Russia and China, says Jacobsen.
The professor highlights two important processes that he believes can explain Iran’s course of action:
Killed in Azovstal: – Proud
- Nuclear negotiations with the United States and the West.
- The big demonstrations inside Iran.
Even if Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the West and the United States that could ease economic sanctions, they have no guarantees that they will not later face sanctions in other contexts, Jacobsen says.
The demonstrations in Iran have shown this. The Iranian authorities severely cracked down on the regime, and at least 250 people were killed. The West’s response to brutality has been precisely sanctions.
– The demonstrations put pressure on the regime, which is struggling for its survival. It will always take precedence. In the broader context, I therefore believe that Iran is on its way to abandoning relations with the West, says Jacobsen.
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