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This study was published by mathematicians at Peking University, one of the leading universities in China.
Using data from the United States, Great Britain, France and Israel, mathematicians analyzed what the outcome would have been if China had adopted the same strategy as these countries.
writes news agency Reuters.
“It is estimated that there is a real potential for a massive outbreak of the disease, which would have put an insurmountable strain on the health care system.”, the report states.
Visitors to a restaurant in Beijing, November 27.
Photo: Ng Han Guan / AP
– clear warning
The study shows that daily infections in China would have risen to at least 637,155 if China had adopted the US Corona strategy.
Based on the UK’s strategy, the daily number of infections will reach 275,793.
“Our findings give a clear warning that we are not yet ready to embrace ‘open’ strategies.”, as stated in the report.
Mathematicians caution that the study is based only on basic arithmetic calculations. More complex models are needed to better study the evolution of the epidemic, should restrictions imposed in China be lifted.
A volunteer holds a sign about social distancing at Gentingsting Glacier, one of the arenas for the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing.
Photo: Tingshu Wang/Reuters
zero tolerance policy
China has a zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19. Authorities focus on reducing local outbreaks.
The country’s strategy relies on frequent mandatory mass testing to identify positive cases every time an infection is discovered in a new area South China Morning Newspaper.
China’s borders have been closed to most countries since March last year.
On Saturday, China reported 23 new cases, down from 25 the day before.
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