Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to boost Norway's economy in the coming years.
AI can, among other things, automate many tasks that previously required humans, and find more efficient solutions and create new products that people will pay for.
But like previous revolutionary technologies, it's hard to tell how big an impact AI will have on the economy.
NHO asked the Socio Economic Analysis (SØA) to calculate how many values Creative artificial intelligence Can be made to Norway.
KI can give boost
The report shows that AI developed by 2040 could create values worth NOK 2,000 billion. This is in addition to what Norway already produces.
– The most tangible change we get from using generative AI is that we get value creation on top of what we would otherwise do, says NHO director Ole Erik Almelit.
In addition, they calculate that other digitization gains in society could generate a further NOK 3,600 billion.
In other words, AI and digitization will provide Norway with 5,600 billion in revenue over the next 16 years, according to the report. This represents 2.3 percent of all value creation over the entire period.
– On top of that, we will increase productivity again, which means the economy as a whole will improve in value creation, says Almelid.
Don't believe the word
Socioeconomics professor Joe Tor Lind, on the other hand, is skeptical of the rhetoric in the report.
– What they're doing in the report is they're pulling a figure out of thin air. They say productivity growth will increase by an additional 1.5 percent per year if you can get AI to work, he says:
– This may be a reliable number, but it is a “think about the number” exercise.
– So you wouldn't put too much faith in their decision?
– No, I don't want it. That number is highly uncertain. That number could be very high, but one could also think that the number could be zero or negative for that kind of reason.
He believes that one does not have enough knowledge to calculate the financial benefit of KI.
Rolf Rodnes, subject director at Socioeconomic Analysis.
Photo: Samfunnseconomisk Analyze AS
Rolf Rodnes, course director of socioeconomic analysis, disagreed that the speech was drawn “out of thin air”.
– The assessment is among several that have emerged about how AI will affect the economy if the technology is fully adopted.
Who is betting on AI growth?
There is uncertainty not only about whether AI will lead to growth, but also who will benefit from such growth.
Joe Tor Lind, an economics professor, worries that AI will lead to unemployment in many industries as machines replace humans.
– It is not yet clear how much of this fell on ordinary workers or ordinary small traders.
He believes that AI will not benefit the majority of people, but instead make a few very rich, and there is also a risk.
– It quickly turns out that the person who owns the algorithm or controls the artificial intelligence algorithm that creates it gets a lot of the surplus that is generated.
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