The most dramatic time on election night is precisely 9 p.m. Then NRK and other Norwegian media outlets are allowed to broadcast speeches from the election for the first time.
In previous local elections, the speech provided a carefree atmosphere and incredible enthusiasm from Dole Party FNB. In multi-party awareness: a stiff, nervous smile.
As a voter, you can have a little more control over your nerves and from 9pm onwards you can truly enjoy the numbers and results on NRK’s election result pages.
Calculation of the final result
Presented to you first on nrk.no, TV and radio at 9pm is the national forecast for overall support for the party in the municipal elections.
A forecast is a calculation of the expected final results of an election.
But the national result in the local elections will not decide anything.
Many will quickly go to check their municipality or county. It is the support there that determines who holds political power in the next four years. Which type of party works best, and who can co-opt more than half of the votes in the municipal council or county council?
Undecided, but can still do it? Try Valomaten.
Predictions by NRK
The predictions you get from NRK tonight are primarily based on the many advance votes that have come in.
Almost 1.3 million Norwegians voted early.
That’s a clear record for a local election, but not as high as two years ago when Norwegians wore masks and kept their distance in a parliamentary election during the pandemic.
4.3 million Norwegians are eligible to vote, so there are many more votes to come.
Order: Vote first. So count. Here you are voting in front of the town hall in Tromsø.
Photo: Erik Hind Svein / NRK
The forecast uses early votes counted and also votes cast on election days, Sunday and Monday, and counted before 9 p.m.
NRK then makes a calculation based on the pattern of votes counted. Each is driven by a model that takes into account history and the relationship between early votes and Election Day votes.
Foreword: Professor Jorgen Polstad.
Photo: Amund Aasbrenn / UiO
NRK has prepared the forecast in close cooperation with Professor Jørgen Polstad, a political scientist and statistician at the University of Oslo.
The main point of a forecast is to provide a more accurate picture of the final election result.
But the forecast is never 100 percent accurate, and the forecast number is adjusted throughout the evening as more votes come in.
In the evening each is more uncertain, then they become more and more certain, Polstad explains.
– Our model actually gives many possible outcomes for a party, but we provide support for the party.
In the past, the Norwegian Directorate of Elections has produced a forecast of the expected final result. This has been stopped since this year.
Different people in the media
NRK and TV 2 will have their own forecasts tonight, while most other media outlets will show what the currently reported result looks like.
So, in the evening you can find three different national supporters per party.
Now when we show the numbers counted, there will be some differences. For example, in previous elections, the Center Party had very low numbers in the evening, while the MDG had very good numbers.
Forecasts will smooth this out and be closer to the correct result if the model is good. The purpose of NRK is to provide support for individual parties more precisely. And about the result in large municipalities.
In addition to the forecast for the national result, NRK aims to provide a forecast for the fall of the currency in 20 or more large municipalities.
Red and blue blocks
In some graphic footage from NRK tonight, you will see the party lined up on the red and blue sides. In recent years, many large municipalities have been governed by mayors or city councilors who belong to the Labor Party alongside their agreed party. The big tension in the big municipalities in this year’s elections is whether they can hold on to power or whether Hogre and their allies on the other side of politics can take over.
We show the red and blue sides of politics to show the different teams pitted against each other in the four largest cities of Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim and Stavanger, and the biggest Tromsø in the north.
This is a simplification.
Many election results do not give a clear victory to either the red or blue side. Many municipalities have multiple parties to talk to both sides. After the elections, the talks on power will take place.
When it comes to big cities, especially in Bergen, you should expect that the decision is not always clear.
Follow your municipality
Locally and in most of the country’s 357 municipalities (the dissolution of Alasund and Haram means there will be an extra one from the beginning of the year) there will be no forecast on NRK’s pages.
For these, follow the result of the number available anytime on nrk.no. In many municipalities, votes are tallied from each polling station, and as they are completed, the percentage counted slowly climbs. While some municipalities report everything as soon as they are done, the final result comes suddenly.
No election day poll from NRK
A few years ago Election Day polling was very common.
In such a poll, the polling agency contacts the voters who voted and asks what they voted for. Election day polls are more accurate than pre-election polls because of the actual people the hair Vote. But such a measure is expensive, requires many people working quickly, and implementing the whole thing is challenging.
NRK has not had an election day poll since 2009. We won’t have it this year either, but may offer similar polls from other media outlets. Such metrics can provide other interesting information, for example, what voters are passionate about.
After midnight, a lot of decisions are made in many municipalities.
Then some politicians are dancing at home at night with their shoulders hanging.
Others put the party pen in the bin and think the next attempt is four years away.
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