The first three may be the hottest

Olala! Check that weather forecast—but there's a joker lurking.

22:21 on Tuesday 14 May

A new report shows that the first summer month of the year could be one of the top three warmest months in 10 years Seasonal forecast A weather report that provides an overview of the expected weather over a long period of time, such as an entire season.From the Climate Futures Research Center in Bergen.

– The chance of that is relatively high in both the south and the north, climatologist Erik Kolstad tells VG about the warning.

– Uncertainty is very high when we predict climate so far into the future. But it's a very clear signal, a little clearer than usual, Kolstad says.

The warning is:

1. The first summer month of the year has a low chance of being the hottest in 10 years – just 10 percent.
2. This year there is a high probability of three warm spells from June onwards. Here there is a 30 percent chance in most parts of the country, especially in western Norway and northern Norway.
3. June 2024 is likely to be among the five hottest places in the last 10 years.

But remember! There are huge differences across countries. In eastern Norway, for example, it's hard to compete against 2018's record-warming summer.

Here are three different scenarios where you can live:

For the rest of the summer, there is still more uncertainty in the season forecast. Summers in this country are likely to be the hottest in 10 years – but not in eastern Norway.

– The chances of getting temperatures similar to eastern Norway again in 2018 are slim. So even if it's hot, before that happens, Kolstad.

The weather joker lurks

In other words, it is very promising for summer and swimming enthusiasts. It may not be record-breaking, but it's hot.

But the ocean may have a hue: rain.

– Precipitation is very difficult to predict, but it's a joke that can ruin summer weather, says Kolstad:

– We fear higher air temperatures due to higher sea temperatures and more rain due to warmer seas.

On the way to the top of the heat

– We are in the form of a heat wave right now, and we may get something similar throughout the summer, says meteorologist Hans Olav Hygen.

He based his analysis on statistics from Copernicus, the European Union's climate project. They collected seasonal warnings from eight similar climate centers and built statistics based on them.

Alert works like this: all data is sorted from coldest to hottest, and sorted into three blocks. The third with the lowest temperature, the third with the middle and the upper third with the highest temperature.

– For southern Norway, there is a 60 percent chance that this year's summer will end in the first third, says Hygen.

– If this happens, there will be really hot weather. He says it will creep up to 30 degrees for parts of southern Norway, and it's generally cooler in the north.

This is good news for those who like to lay on the rocks and soak up the sun.

Is it hot in the south?

If you are planning to travel to Southern Europe, you need to be a little careful.

Seasonal forecasting is more accurate further south in Europe — and the region around the Mediterranean is predicted to be the warmest, Hygen says.

– People should be aware that it can get hot in there. The past few years have been characterized by heat waves. If this warning holds true, we're heading into another round of heat waves.

Earlier, Viji spoke to the Ministry of External Affairs (MOF), which is bracing for another extreme summer with heat waves and forest fires.

They've collected some good tips for Norwegians heading out into the European heat: