Kharkiv/Oslo (Aftenposten): After the historic decision in the United States, a lively race is underway. Will this change the course of the Ukrainian war?
The short version
- The battle for the Serebriansk Forest in Donetsk lasted two years. Now the United States will send arms aid to Ukraine. The question is whether this will turn the tide of the war.
The summary has been prepared with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and quality guaranteed by Aftenposten journalists.
He was about to tell Aftenposten how he thought the war was going, when two loud explosions rang out. Two missiles landed nearby. Smoke rises above tall buildings in Kharkiv. But Yuri Kochubey continues to speak unchallenged.
“I'm more used to bombs than silence now,” he explains.
When Russian military convoys entered Kharkiv more than two years ago, he volunteered. He collected weapons from dead Russians, joined patrols outside the city and survived rocket attacks by throwing himself on the ground in neighborhood parks. The war taught him one thing:
– I realized that the car saves lives. If the car does not start, the injured person quickly turns into a dead person.
He now works on collecting broken down soldiers' cars and repairing them. Seats and windows are covered in blood, and sometimes body parts. It must be washed before work begins. Then the car is filled with soldiers. The track is then returned to the trenches.
Few talk to the soldiers as much as Yuri does. They have been waiting for six months for more help from the United States. Could it turn the tide of the war?
What does the new American package consist of?
The Ukrainian package is worth 680 billion Norwegian kroner. This represents 22 percent of total aid to date.
Before, Ukraine was almost promised. 2.900 billion Norwegian kroner, according to the German Kiel Institute. That was not enough to save the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive last year. Instead, the war turned in Putin's favor.
Is this a lot or a little?
Historically, Ukraine has received more aid than it has received US Marshall Aid US Marshall AidThe US Marshall Plan from 1948 to 1951 went to 16 European countries after World War II. The money, provided in the form of loans, support and supplies, was to go to reconstruction, in exchange for countries opening up to more free trade. The plan was also intended to counter the rise of communism in many European countries. All the countries of Eastern Europe, which were under the control of the Soviet Union, said no. In addition, Spain and Finland also declined. To Europe after World War II. On the other hand, the United States spent much more on the war in Afghanistan.
In any case, the new package is described as very decisive in both the United States and NATO countries and Ukraine:
- About NOK 250 of the NOK 680 billion goes to replenishing US arms stocks, as well as covering the costs of equipping US forces “to respond to the situation in Ukraine.”
- NOK 310 billion will be allocated for weapons, ammunition and missiles in Ukraine. The United States can deliver more weapons faster than European NATO members.
This is the most important thing for Ukrainians, he writes Europeska Pravda. How will this affect the war?
When will this come forward?
Before the aid arrives, it must be approved in the Senate on Tuesday. Here there is a clear majority. President Joe Biden said he would sign this “immediately.” The first deliveries have been prepared for a long time. They could arrive in Ukraine “within a few days,” according to a Pentagon spokesman. In this case, that means the end of next week.
– It is believed that this should have an almost immediate effect The Economist.
Carnegie expert Michael Kaufman estimates that the package will provide the Ukrainians with enough artillery ammunition for a year.
But grenades, anti-aircraft systems and missiles would have to be transported about 1,000 kilometers to the front. Logistically, it is a very complex process. Russian missiles have systematically destroyed energy supplies and infrastructure.
– It will take several weeks before this affects the situation at the front, writes the American Research Center ISW.
What's happening in the front?
Before last night's historic decision, the outlook for Ukraine was very bleak.
– President Volodymyr Zelensky said that without US help, Ukraine would lose the war.
CIA Director William J. Burns that this could happen during this 2024.
Aftenposten's analysis of map data from the front shows that the Russian advance is still progressing slowly, even without help from the United States. But the pace has accelerated in recent weeks.
– If Russia wants to seize large parts of Donetsk, now is the time. This is the analysis of Emil Kastehelmi at the Finnish Black Bird OSINT group X.
During the six months that Republicans blocked aid to Ukraine, Russia seized approx. 350 square kilometers.
The main reason behind this gloomy mood in Kharkiv is that the Russians continue to bomb relentlessly.
Enough not to lose – but not enough to win
On Telegram and other social media channels, many Ukrainian soldiers express their anger against the West and their leaders.
Telegram has become the most important information channel for most Ukrainians.
It is a great relief that the United States is once again providing assistance. But the soldiers know that the war is not won only with the help of the West.
- There are very few Ukrainian soldiers on the front. In many brigades, 75% of soldiers were wounded or killed. Just last week, Ukraine passed a new mobilization law after months of political debate.
- The desire to fight is also weakening due to new corruption scandals. Okrynska Braff said this week stories About how the children of rich Ukrainians in Kiev drive around in Ferraris and go to party in Ibiza.
-If you care too much about the negative things soldiers say, you will become discouraged. So I try to keep my distance from him. Just doing my job. I have enough negative conversations with myself, says Yuri Kochubey.
Yuri's journeys back and forth are a game of chance. One time he had to take a minibus that was bombed by a Russian PFV drone. PFV drone.FPV stands for First Person View. This is a drone equipped with a camera, which is controlled in real time by the drone operator towards the target. These grenade-laden drones play a very important role in the front. When he arrived, there was an arm in the car. It was blown up by a soldier. Yuri was asked to return the limb to the soldier.
He added: – He lost his arm, but fortunately he survived.
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