The United States is expected to account for more than half of the global increase in LNG supply in 2023 and become the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to the Quarterly Gas Market Report. from the International Energy Agency on Thursday.
Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 4 percent in 2023, with the United States accounting for more than half of the increase. The growth will be primarily supported by the start-up of the Calcasieu Pass LNG and Freeport LNG terminal, which returned to full operations at the end of the first quarter of 2023.
However, this will not be enough to compensate for the expected decrease in Russian gas supplies to Europe.
“If gas continues to flow from Russia to Europe at the levels seen in the first quarter, shipments of Russian gas through pipelines will decrease by 45 percent, or more than 35 billion cubic meters in 2023 compared to 2022,” the report stated.
Cautious optimism
Europe captured almost the entire LNG market after the demise of Russian pipeline gas in 2022. LNG accounted for two-thirds of Europe’s gas imports and met about one-third of gas demand during 2022/23.
Mild weather, an increase in LNG exports and a sharp drop in gas consumption helped cushion the shock, leaving gas inventories in Europe at 60 percent.
“Low market tension and relatively full gas inventories ahead of summer are reasons for cautious optimism about supply security,” the International Energy Agency said in the report.
China back
China is gradually regaining its appetite for LNG, although imports will still be below 2021 levels. China’s LNG imports fell by 20 percent in 2022, allowing for higher LNG supplies to the European market. The country’s LNG imports are expected to rise by 10-15% in 2023 compared to 2022 levels.
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