Russia moved 100,000 soldiers to the border, and made a list of demands that NATO could not meet. But what does Vladimir Putin really want to achieve?
The fear of war increased month by month this fall. Russia has moved what appears to be an invading power up to the border with Ukraine.
In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky came out and explained it to them It is feared that a coup attempt with Russian assistance is underway. Now there are fears that Russian forces will invade the neighboring country.
– On the Ukrainian side, they are afraid of a major attack. Russian expert Jacob M.
The Dnieper River flows through the capital, Kiev, among other places.
1 of 2Photo: SERGEY DOLZHENKO / EPA
Impossible Requirements List
On Friday, Putin’s promotion was announced Demands that NATO countries withdraw their forces from Russia’s neighborsAll military aid to Ukraine was stopped.
The allegations were delivered to the United States earlier this week, and were made public on Friday. They were presented in two drafts of two new security agreements – one that the Russians will conclude with the United States, and the other they hope will be joined by NATO.
In this case, they are demanding that NATO roll back its 25-year military merger with its new member states to the east, and drastically reduce the US presence in Europe.
NATO sources have indicated that this is the case It is not appropriate to be pressed into all requirements For Putin, but at the same time it is open to negotiations.
Did you not see the background? Read these two cases:
Russia has new demands on NATO: This is how Putin wants to change Europe
Information for VG: This is how NATO will respond to Russia
1 of 2Photo: SERGEY DOLZHENKO / EPA
Ready to face Russia
On Tuesday, the President of Ukraine said Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that he was “ready to confront Russia in any way,” adding that Ukraine was “ready to implement what we agreed on.”
The statement came in response to a phone conversation between Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron earlier that day.
He stated that the possibility of holding a new summit “in the Normandy format” depends on the concrete steps of the Ukrainian authorities towards the implementation of the Minsk Agreement.
The Normandy format is a platform consisting of Germany, Ukraine, France and Russia, which was created to solve the war in the Donbass in eastern Ukraine.
After painstaking negotiations in February 2015, the two countries agreed on a ceasefire, the creation of a buffer zone, the control of the front, and that the Ukrainian National Assembly should offer autonomy to certain regions in Donetsk and Lugansk.
feeling surrounded
Godzimirsky says there are two opinions about why Russia is pushing so hard: One is that Russia is making a huge effort, in order to have something to come back to. The second is that Russia feels really threatened by Ukraine’s rapprochement with the European Union and NATO.
Russia came up with a new security doctrine this summer, much to do with the need for Russia to respond to threats from the European Union and NATO.
– Does Putin mean seriously, or is this something he does to show strength at home?
– It’s not good to say. Some believe that Russian foreign policy aims only to distract from political discontent and enhance the regime’s legitimacy, by playing on and threatening the idea that Russia is surrounded and threatened by the West, says Godzimirsky.
– But at the same time, Russia feels that it is losing influence over Ukraine. The researcher explained that they tried to pressure Zelensky to work more closely in bilateral relations, but they were unsuccessful.
Annexation would be an invasion
– Can one imagine that they are moving to a limited area, such as Luhansk and Donetsk, where pro-Russian separatists already control?
– There is no need to use military force to control those areas. Russia already has effective control.
– So you do not believe in a complete annexation there as seen in Crimea in 2014?
Then they would not have had to march 100,000 soldiers to the border. And if they entered Luhansk and Donetsk, it would still be an invasion of another country, with international condemnation as a result.
Therefore, Godzimirsky believes that Putin has greater goals.
– Perhaps he hopes to pressure the West to make concessions. If Ukraine enters itself with soldiers, you do not know how the war will develop.
If Russia suffers heavy losses and is subjected to severe economic sanctions, both will be unpopular at home.
One must hope that the regime most concerned with its stability will find solutions other than the military, the researcher concludes.
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