Ukraine War, Kosovo | The fear of a major war is approaching

Serbia mobilizes military – and has sent troops to the border with Kosovo, a country that Norway, among others, recognizes as independent – but is highly contested. NATO is deeply divided – but at the same time it has been charged with the responsibility of ensuring the safety of the nearly 1.7 million inhabitants of the tiny land area, which is only a quarter the size of Trondelag. The European Union has also assumed great responsibility for the country’s development and security.

while Serbia is openly threatening to use military force to “protect” the Serb minority in the disputed neighboring country, and Serbs in Kosovo are busy building barricades in the streets. Several reports indicate that militias are being formed within the Serb community in Kosovo.

one can Slowly wondering whether Serbia would again risk war with NATO, after the alliance bombed Belgrade in 1999, among other things, this is where the fear of a major war now comes to the fore. Because behind Serbia stands Russia, not least President Vladimir Putin. This makes the situation today markedly different from 1999. At that time, Russia was too weak to be a factor of strength.

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war in Ukraine did not turn out the way Putin and the Russian regime had hoped. Resistance is growing among the population – and the situation on the front is catastrophic. As a countermeasure, large-scale missile attacks are carried out against civilian targets, with the goal of destroying the infrastructure that keeps society going.

This led to another Western move: now the Patriot system is being sent to Ukraine. The Patriot is a missile defense system that was developed in the 1980s, but has been significantly modernized and upgraded – and it has a very significant achievement. Perhaps Russia’s massive missile attack on Christmas Day should be seen as an attempt to destroy as much as possible before the Patriot system is established.

Poorly equipped Russian soldiers

russian soldiers, Poorly equipped and even worse, out of training, they die on the battlefield and as a result of injuries that are not treated properly. Everything indicates that discontent in the Kremlin with the development is great and growing. And the blame is openly blamed on the West and NATO – which has initiated large-scale arms aid to Ukraine, making it a near certainty that Russia will prevail, unless one admits defeat and declares all-out war.

This would unleash very different resources than we’ve seen so far, and many in the Russian leadership have reportedly been pushing for such a solution for a long time. But President Putin has so far refused. Most likely out of fear of backlash in the population.

it’s a This is where Kosovo comes in. What if a conflict breaks out in the Balkans, causing NATO to have a new problem in its lap? A problem where the alliance is already deeply divided. Greece supports Serbia – for historical reasons. There you see conflict very differently than you see in the EU and Norway. However, Greece is not alone in the western field. Spain, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus do not recognize Kosovo. For Spain, we find the reason for the internal conflict over Catalonia, which calls for secession from Spain.

Recognizing Kosovo will make it politically required to oppose the Catalans after their demand for independence has been met. This is why the left and the right in Spain have come together in opposition to Kosovo’s independence.

What if another armed conflict breaks out?

so far NATO and the European Union succeeded in closing ranks on Ukraine. As long as the conflict was not highlighted, Kosovo was not an urgent problem either. But what if a new armed conflict breaks out? Serbia holds the key here. Could Kosovo be the card Putin can play to divide the West, thereby weakening the will — and perhaps the ability — to help Ukraine?

war between Serbia and NATO lasted from March 24 to June 10, 1999 – the starting point was the safety of the Albanian population of Kosovo. The concern was not without reason. A few years ago, in 1995, about 8,000 Muslim boys and men were massacred by Serb forces in Srebrenica. Four years later, it was feared that the same thing would happen again in Kosovo. The bombing of the Serbian capital, Belgrade, came as a shock to the Serbian population – and the bitterness it caused is still evident.

Reactions in the Orthodox world were strong, not least in Russia. Many believe that this is where we find the seeds of a worsening East-West relationship, with NATO and the European Union representing the western side – and Russia standing as the most important player on the eastern side. The war, justified in the West by the need to protect the Muslim population of Kosovo, was presented in the East as a crusade against Orthodox culture.

Historical tension between East and West

Serbia and Russia does not have a military alliance, but it is a close ally in all other areas.

big policy that He ignited World War I based on the fact that Serbia threatened the power of Austria-Hungary in the Western Balkans, which Serbs considered historic Serbian territory. Behind Serbia stood Russia. When the Habsburg heir to the throne and his wife were murdered by a Serbian nationalist at the end of June 1914, the conflict escalated. We know the score.

What would have become a conflict between the relatively weak Serbia and the much more powerful Austria-Hungary became a major conflict after Germany entered into an alliance with the Dual Monarchy – while Russia allied itself with Serbia.

The war, which was later referred to as “the war that no one wanted” and, as it were, was not expected until after St. Hans in 1914, it was until then the worst in world history. Behind it all was the historical tension between East and West.

The rulers of the times In Russia, it was seen as a Western attempt to marginalize and suppress the Orthodox Eastern culture, which in Russian history goes back to the division of the Roman Empire and the creation of the so-called Eastern Empire of Byzantium with Constantinople. its headquarters.

Byzantium had its golden age from the mid-6th century, when Greek became the official language and the Orthodox Church tradition was established until 1204. Russia, however, is of secondary importance. It is logical that Russia would consider itself the successor of Byzantium and the defender of the true faith. One of them, if not a politician, then at least a spiritual heir to Byzantium.

Almost experienced like fratricide

war in For many Russians, Ukraine is problematic—almost seen as fratricide. Most Russians know that history is not as black and white as the authorities claim. Conflict with NATO and the West in the Balkans would be something else.

There you will encounter old and fixed offers. This is known in the Kremlin – and is probably being done at NATO headquarters in Brussels as well. Kosovo and Serbia may be the turning point Putin needs to break the Western Front and thus weaken Ukraine so that at least parts of the objectives can be achieved.

the father That such a situation can get out of control.

It was Perhaps it was both politicians and generals who wanted greater conflict in 1914, and who saw the assassination of the heir to the Viennese throne in Sarajevo as an opening that could be used for something much more than intimidating Serbia into curbing its activities against Austria-Hungary. domination.

But we find few traces after the war that were required by the great political leaders. For the emperor in Vienna and the political environment around him, it was a matter of retaining control over what are today Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia. At the same time, there was concern about Serbia’s close relationship with Russia, with which it was not sure it could handle the conflict. So they turned to Germany and asked for guarantees in the event of an escalation of the conflict.

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Kaiser Wilhelm II In Berlin he was generally seen as an unstable bordering on psychopaths — a kind of Donald Trump of his era — who would soon say one thing out loud, and soon the opposite, to the chagrin of the power circles around him. It was later documented that many leading politicians in Berlin were unsure what position the Emperor would eventually take if the conflict really came to a head.

no In St. Petersburg there was agreement on the steps to be taken. Tsar Nicholas II was deeply religious and under the strong influence of fanatical ecclesiastical forces absorbed in the ancient concept of Russia as God’s holy kingdom on earth, ideas that, among other things, Tsar Alexandra – originally from Germany – and the circle around her, strongly influenced.

Others, members of the imperial family, politicians, and generals, believed that Serbia’s problems were not important enough to risk war with Germany and Austria-Hungary. It was these arguments that made no impression on the staunchly believing actors who were authorized by the Tsar. For them, the fight for Serbia was part of something bigger – a holy war for the Holy Church and Holy Russia. And – as a parallel: today, exactly the same rhetoric is used by the leadership of the Russian Church when it comes to the war in Ukraine and the conflict with the West. The words are repeated – so to speak, as they were said, more than a hundred years ago.

Every reason to be aware of the Serbian mobilization

We know The result. Evolution is out of control. One movement was countermoved. A month after the Sarajevo shootings, war was a reality when Austria-Hungary attacked Serbia. Russia chose to abide by the promises of its Orthodox ally, and Western Europe was drawn into the war when Germany attacked Belgium and France, which in turn drew Britain into conflict. Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria and Turkey allied themselves in what we refer to as the Central Powers.

it’s a So every reason to be aware of the Serbian mobilization and what is happening now in the Serb part of Kosovo. In 1999, NATO began working to protect Kosovar Albanians from the Serbs. And now Serbia can do the same – to protect the Serb minority, an old argument that has been used to justify the use of military force even in cases where the justification lacks roots in fact.

The leadership in Kosovo sees the whole thing as a planned escalation. He added, “It is Serbia, influenced by Russia, that has raised the readiness of the army. “They are the ones who order the erection of barriers.”

Kosovo security

NATO has In many ways, they took responsibility for Kosovo’s security – it was precisely the coalition war against Serbia that launched the process that ended with Kosovo declaring its independence.

For its part, the European Union has a kind of godfather mission in terms of politics and society – a mission that it once received from the United Nations, despite the fact that the world organization did not recognize Kosovo’s independence from Serbia. In other words, it would be impossible for the West to accept an attack on Kosovo. At the same time, the conflict with Serbia today will be much more dangerous than in 1999 – because NATO is already indirectly involved in the war in Ukraine. A war between Serbia and NATO, however limited, may be what Putin needs to declare war that unleashes all of Russia’s military might. Then we can quickly be where Europe was in the late summer of 1914.

for one Years ago there were many, both left and right in politics, who dismissed the threat of a Russian attack on Ukraine.

Others sincerely hoped that the threat was without substance. Now the war is in its brutal eleventh month. That is why many experts are once again looking anxiously at the Balkans. The most dangerous wars tend to be surprising—because in many ways they are inconsequential. However, it has happened before. Many times. And it will happen again.