War in Ukraine – this is how winter can affect the war

US Secretary of Defense Mike Milley And it was appreciated The Ukrainians have until the end of October, before the ongoing offensive will be “hindered” by the weather.

More analysts He agrees that winter could mean less movement on the front lines in Ukraine, because rain and cold make the terrain more difficult for both sides to navigate.

Are the Ukrainians now running out of time to gain more from the attack before it is called off?

Not necessarily, says Lieutenant Colonel Bali Yedstepu, chief instructor in the Land Forces Department at the Military College.

– If the Ukrainians are well equipped, winter should not be an obstacle for them. Ydstepo tells Dagbladet that it is now more about obtaining ammunition and resources than the weather and seasons.

Here are the battles

Now, in Zaporizhia in particular – in southern Ukraine – there are reports of tangible progress for Ukrainians. Here they are claimed in some places Operating behind the Russians’ third and final line of defence.

This is where the presenter believes the Ukrainians will put pressure on in the future.

In parallel, the Ukrainians carried out targeted attacks against Crimea, the latest of which was on Friday, against the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. The attack caused great destruction, and the Ukrainians claimed that several “high-ranking Russian commanders” were killed.

Yedstepo believes that this indicates that Russian forces are exposed in all the occupied areas. It is believed that the Ukrainians will also try to attack Russian warplanes in Crimea during the fall.

– He says that if the Ukrainians can lead the battle on the front, while at the same time destroying the Russians’ ability to support their fight on the front, they will accumulate gains over time.

There is also tension over whether the Ukrainians will be able to reach Tokmak. The occupied city is described as an important center for Russian supply lines in the south.

-If they can cut the land bridge here, they can completely isolate the Russians in Crimea and in Kherson. “After that, it starts to get awkward,” Yedstepo says.

Do you consider this scenario likely?

– Yes, I see that as very likely. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the strength ratio here, but there seems to be a surprising number of Russian detachments here. Some of them must be completely degraded. If the Ukrainians manage to inflict heavy casualties on them, the defenses may become too weak, and then they may begin to act.

Large-scale Russian defensive actions

This time last year, the Ukrainians were surprised by two lightning attacks – first against Kharkiv in the north, then against Kherson in the south. In a short time, they regained large areas in the two provinces.

The ongoing attack is described as purposeful, but slow-moving.

Conditions are no longer suitable for similar maneuvers as last year. The Russians spent time building kilometers of extensive defences, with minefields, trenches and tank trenches.

– Last year they were not ready. Now they had been preparing for months, and it was difficult to break through something like this. Therefore, Ukrainians have to work systematically; “Trench by trench,” says Ydstebø.

Putin’s desperate arms hunt

He describes the Ukrainian offensive as artillery-intensive, consisting of minor attacks and a steady wear and tear on Russian forces, which are likely to be able to withstand the muddy conditions.

– But the Ukrainians have a difficult battle ahead of them, says Yedstepo.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has himself admitted that the Ukrainian offensive is progressing slowly, and described the action in similar terms, but without worrying about the coming fall and winter weather, in a recent interview with CBS.

Standing by his side is his intelligence chief, Kirilo Budanov pronounced The expected mud and cold could have “negative consequences.” At the same time, he stressed that the attack would continue regardless of the weather.